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Current Political Climate

The political landscape in the UK is currently marked by a significant lead for the Labour Party over the Conservative Party, with a general election scheduled for July 4, 2024. Recent polling indicates Labour is ahead by about 16 points, holding 43% of the projected vote share compared to the Conservatives’ 27%​​.

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Impact of Reform UK on the Current General Election

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has significantly influenced the dynamics of the upcoming election. Polls indicate that Reform UK is now a considerable threat to the Conservative Party, particularly in specific vital constituencies. This shift is attributed to Farage’s decision to stand as a Member of Parliament and his takeover as party leader, which has energized the party’s campaign and broadened its appeal.

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Current Polling Impact

Recent polling data shows that Reform UK polling is close to that of the Conservatives, with figures around 16–17%, whereas the Conservatives are at 19%​​. This narrowing gap demonstrates Reform UK’s growing support, primarily drawing from disaffected Conservative voters.

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Labour’s lead underscores significant public dissatisfaction with the Conservative government’s handling of economic and social issues, including the fallout from Liz Truss’s brief tenure as Prime Minister and the controversial mini-budget of 2022, which severely impacted the Conservatives’ reputation and polling numbers. The political environment is shifting, with Labour gaining traction in traditional Conservative strongholds and increasing support in Scotland and Wales. The Conservatives are grappling with the challenge of regaining voter trust amid ongoing criticisms of their economic and social policies.

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Election Ads: The First 4 Weeks

Since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the general election, the Conservative and Labour parties have launched intensive advertising campaigns, each reflecting their strategic priorities and addressing critical issues for the upcoming election.

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Audience Sentiment Analysis

In the last 30 days, the Labour Party has had a far higher overall support index (41%) than the Conservative Party (23%) and Reform UK (19%).

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There is a high conversation volume amongst all three parties. Reform UK has the most positive sentiment (49%). The Labor Party has a slightly neutral overall sentiment (47%), while the Conservative Party has a negative overall sentiment (45%).

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The top two conversation topics for each Party are “Elections” and “Immigrants.”

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Ad Spend

Labour Party

The Labour Party emerges as the dominant spender in the digital ad space, with a total expenditure of over £1.7M on Meta. This substantial investment is spread across 493 active pages, commanding a 50.85% share of the total political ad spend during this period.

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Conservatives

Following Labour, the Conservative Party has spent around £960,000 on Meta. This budget was managed across 385 active pages. Their share of the total ad spending stands at 27.95%.

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Reform UK

Reform UK, in stark contrast to the Labour and Conservative parties, allocated a much smaller budget to its digital ad campaigns. So far, its total spend on Meta has amounted to around £26,000, distributed over 36 active pages. This modest spending constitutes only 0.76% of the total political ad expenditure.

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Messaging

Conservative ads warn about Labour’s policies and promote their achievements, while Labour’s ads highlight their proposals for change and critique the Conservative government’s record. This comparison underscores the contrasting visions each party has for Britain’s future.

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Conservative Party Messaging

The Conservative Party’s ads focus on criticizing Labour policies and highlighting their achievements:

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Highlighting Labour’s Costs:

• Tax Increases: Emphasizing the financial burden of Labour’s policies with statements like, “Labour’s Tax Trap Manifesto confirmed they would raise taxes to their highest level in British history.”
• Economic Concerns: Pointing out the negative impacts of Labour’s economic policies.

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Promoting Conservative Achievements:

• Economic Stability: Ads claim success in reducing inflation and question Labour’s economic plans: “Inflation is down. Rishi Sunak’s plan is working. What’s Labour’s plan?”
• Healthcare Improvements: Highlighting reduced NHS waiting lists and questioning Labour’s healthcare strategy.
• Leadership: Promoting their leadership as decisive and forward-thinking with slogans like “Clear Plan. Bold Action. Secure Future.”

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Labour Party Messaging

Labour’s ads focus on their vision for change and contrast their plans with the current government:

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Proposals for Change:

• Policy Initiatives: Highlighting specific steps like setting up a publicly-owned clean power company: “Labour’s first step will set up Great British Energy.”
• Commitment to Change: Emphasizing immediate, beneficial changes with “Labour’s first steps for change will deliver for Britain.”

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Critique of Conservative Governance:

• Public Dissatisfaction: Highlighting frustration with the current government: “People like Jed are fed up with 14 years of Tory chaos.”
• Contrasting Visions: Presenting their commitment to renewable energy and environmental responsibility.

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Differentiation from Conservatives:

• Distinct Approach: Ads like “This is what a Labour government would do differently.”

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Reform UK Messaging

Reform UK’s advertisements focus on the urgent need for change, criticism of current policies, and a strong call to action. Here are the key themes:

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Need for Reform

Reform UK stresses that the country is broken and needs to be fixed:

• Broken System: Ads declare, “Britain is broken, and needs Reform” and “Only Reform UK has the answers to fix our country,” positioning themselves as the solution.

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Criticism of Current Policies

Reform UK critiques economic and immigration policies:

• Economic Burden: They question, “If immigration was such a benefit, how come we have the highest tax burden in over 70 years?”
• Immigration Control: Highlighting, “Our future is at stake with 14 million new arrivals. It’s time to take back control of our borders.”

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Call to Action

Reform UK urges voter participation:

• Urgency: “YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU: Register to vote in this crucial election,” pushing for immediate action.

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Ad Highlights

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Labour: Biographical-Style Video

Labour has invested heavily in video ads featuring real-life voters and their personal stories. A particularly impactful ad showcases a man named Stephen, who explains why he is voting for Labour for the first time. This biographical approach aims to rebuild trust by highlighting genuine support and countering skepticism toward political narratives.

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Conservatives: Vote Splitting Warnings

The Conservative Party continues to focus on ads warning about the dangers of vote splitting with Reform UK. These ads suggest that divided right-leaning votes could result in a substantial Labour majority. This fear-based tactic consolidates the Conservative base and discourages votes for smaller right-wing parties.

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Reform UK: “Our Contract With You”

Reform UK’s most ran ad outlines five key pledges to address critical issues facing Britain: freezing immigration, stopping illegal boat arrivals, eliminating NHS waiting lists, cutting taxes to increase take-home pay, and ensuring cheaper and more secure energy, presenting their proposals in a clear and straightforward checklist format.

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Looking Ahead to the Final Campaign Push

As Labour maintains a lead in the polls and the Conservatives strive to regain voter confidence, the campaign’s final two weeks will be a high-stakes battleground. Meanwhile, Reform must prove they are more than just a protest vote, working to build a brand that extends beyond Nigel Farage’s influence. Recent missteps have made Conservative voters wary, seeing Reform as a potentially risky choice. Watching how these parties define and intensify their ad strategies will offer deeper insights into their adaptability and resilience. The Conservatives, currently outspent, must strategically allocate their remaining funds and deliver a consistent, compelling message to make a significant impact. The strategic maneuvers during this critical period could shape the election’s outcome.