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The Global Brief: Colombia Wide Open, Serbia Cracks, Peru Votes in 9 Days

Ryan Rodgers
President
April 3, 2026
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THE GLOBAL BRIEF
ISSUE 002 · APRIL 3, 2026 · TSGCo
60+
Leaders killed
in Colombia
9
Presidents in
10 yrs (Peru)
14M
Gen Z voters
eligible (Kenya)
Insurgent movements are outrunning established parties in every region we track. The engagement windows for Q3/Q4 races are closing.
RYAN RODGERS
1 BIG THING
Colombia's presidential race is wide open after a violent parliamentary campaign
Petro's left won the most Senate seats but fell far short of a majority. The right surged. The presidential field is now a three-way fight.
First round: May 31. Probable runoff: June 21. Over 60 political figures were killed this cycle. A presidential candidate was assassinated in Bogota. The ELN declared a ceasefire just to allow the election to happen.
MARCH 8 RESULTS
Historic Pact (Petro's left)
25
Centro Democratico (Uribe's right)
17
Petro approval (unusually high for outgoing LatAm president)
49% (Invamer)
Sources: Official results (March 8), Invamer (Feb 2026), AP
THE PRESIDENTIAL FIELD
Ivan Cepeda · Left · Petro's successor · Leads polls
Paloma Valencia · Center-right · Uribe protege · 3.2M primary votes
Abelardo de la Espriella · Far-right · Milei-style outsider · Skipped primaries
◆ Why it matters:
Colombia is LatAm's 4th largest economy and the world's largest cocaine producer. The next president determines US-Colombia relations under Trump, the future of the FARC peace accord, and foreign investment in mining and energy.
What the March 8 results mean for May 31
Three things the parliamentary vote revealed:
1. The left is the largest force but cannot govern alone. Historic Pact's 25 Senate seats (up from 22 in 2022) still need coalition partners. A constitutional rewrite is off the table.
2. The right is resurgent. Centro Democratico's jump from 13 to 17 seats signals "anti-Petroism" is consolidating. Paloma Valencia's 3.2 million primary votes exceeded every projection.
3. The far-right outsider lane is real. De la Espriella skipped primaries entirely. His pitch: slash government, deploy the military, align with Trump. Two-thirds of the electorate remains undecided.
The violence is the backdrop that changes everything. One-third of the country was deemed too dangerous for campaigning. Campaigns leaned on TikTok personalities, AI-generated content, and singers to cut through. One campaign fielded an AI candidate ("Gaitana") for an Indigenous seat.
BALKANS
Serbia's ruling party is cracking after 17 months of student protests
Local elections held on March 29 show Vucic's party losing ground even in its rural strongholds.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) dropped 67.5% in early 2025. The student movement set up 500+ signature stands nationwide. OCCRP reports millions in ruling party cash and "phantom" election monitors deployed.
-67.5%
Foreign direct investment decline, Jan-May 2025
Source: Atlantic Council
◆ Why it matters:
Serbia is the gateway to Western Balkans investment. If early elections produce a credible opposition win, it reopens the EU accession path and unfreezes billions in stalled development capital.
How Serbia's students are running a leaderless revolution
17
Months of sustained protests
The strategy: Deliberately leaderless. Organized through university student bodies and digital coordination, not political parties. No single leader to co-opt or discredit.
The impact: 500+ signature stands nationwide. FDI collapsed 67.5%. Ruling party deployed cash and phantom monitors in today's local elections. The opposition says "the next elections will be a battle for life and air."
The gap: The movement needs to convert protest energy into electoral infrastructure before Vucic calls snap elections. That professionalization window is the consulting opportunity.
Sources: Atlantic Council, OCCRP, Balkan Insight, European Western Balkans
EAST AFRICA
Could Kenya's Gen Z voter surge break the ethnic coalition model?
The "Niko Kadi" movement is converting social media energy into voter registrations at a scale Kenya has never seen.
By 2027, over 14 million Gen Z voters will be eligible. That's a 79.4% increase from 2022. The movement calls itself "leaderless, partyless, tribeless." Raila Odinga's death has fragmented the traditional opposition. Ruto is consolidating through co-option.
50%
of Kenyans have no confidence in 2027 election integrity
Source: May 2025 poll via CIVICUS
◆ Why it matters:
Kenya is East Africa's largest economy. Whether Gen Z translates digital activism into institutional change or gets absorbed into patronage politics will determine governance stability through 2030.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Philippines: Marcos weakened, Duterte dynasty resilient, 2028 race begins
The 2025 midterms split power between two warring dynasties. A "Pink Wave" liberal resurgence surprised everyone.
Marcos won only 6 of 12 Senate seats. Rodrigo Duterte won Davao's mayorship from an ICC jail cell. Sara Duterte faces impeachment hearings but remains the 2028 frontrunner. Turnout hit 82.2%, the highest ever for a midterm.
◆ Why it matters:
The Philippines is the frontline of US-China competition in the South China Sea. The Duterte camp leans Beijing. Marcos leans Washington. The 2028 outcome determines defense contracts, trade policy, and energy access across the region.
SOUTH AMERICA
Peru: 35+ candidates, 9 presidents in 10 years, and the most fragmented field in Latin American history
Two right-wing candidates lead: Keiko Fujimori (authoritarian dynasty) and "Porky" Lopez Aliaga (Trump admirer, wants US boots on the ground).
Murders hit 3,675 in 2025, the highest since 2011. Two-thirds of voters say they could still change their minds. The interim president is Peru's 9th in a decade. Four recent ex-presidents are in prison.
◆ Why it matters:
Peru is the world's 2nd largest copper producer and a major lithium player. China's new Chancay mega-port (total investment up to $3.6B per Washington Post) is now operational. The regulatory environment for mining and energy shifts dramatically depending on who wins.
ON THE RADAR
BRAZIL
Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro. October. Hemispheric trade realignment at stake.
NEPAL
March elections follow Gen Z protests that toppled PM Oli. Constitutional reform on the ballot.
ARMENIA
Pashinyan at 13% trust despite Azerbaijan peace deal. Caucasus energy corridor implications.
U.S. MIDTERMS
435 House + 35 Senate seats. Nov 3. Anti-vax policies flagged as risk by top GOP pollster.
TSGCo has capacity for additional engagements this cycle.
Colombia (May 31), Peru (April 12), and Balkans early elections represent the most immediate pipeline.
CONTACT RYAN RODGERS
The Global Brief is published biweekly by TSGCo.
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The Strategy Group Company | Washington DC
tsgco.com

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